The foreign exchange market is starting to trace its scenario that will come after the soy dollar

(Photo: Franco Fafasuli)

World markets closed in the red, except for Brazil. Argentina weathered this storm well ushering in a global recession. Country risk increased by 44 units to 2,434 basis points as foreign currency debt fell between 1.5% and 3.4%.

But what is disturbing is that the financial dollars are breaking away from the official dollar and the difference is reaching 115%, despite the fact that the Central Bank has set the rates at 107% effective annual rate. Rates no longer include the emergence of alternative dollars because they believe that the measures to prevent a devaluation are running out.

“Although we saw the Brazilian real weak, the decision of the Central Bank of Brazil to keep the Selic (reference interest) unchanged after systematically raising it since January 2021 does not seem to me an insignificant fact. A strong real helped the Argentine Central Bank to keep the exchange rate to keep it low. But we continue to spend pesos that are not in high demand. The soy dollar has issued the equivalent of 17.2% of the monetary base in just 13 rounds, and the remunerated liabilities (interest) generated by that issuance will double in one year. The question is, how far can a slowed dollar last in this context?” said the financial analyst Andres Reschinic.

While devaluation is accelerating month by month, inflation is accelerating too. With the soy dollar, they bought some time at the expense of the Central Bank’s obligations and pressure on the exchange rate gap. We already saw a run on the national debt in June. If confidence is not built at some point, the market will pull back and not warn. Futures have calmed down this week, but at least they were adjusted to 185.77% of the annual effective interest rate at the end of December and it shows that confidence is still lacking,” Reschini added.

Rates are going up all over the world. Japan, the only power to resist, paid for it with the fall of the yen and China, which cut interest rates, with the collapse of the yuan, which lost 0.40% yesterday and devalued Argentina’s reserves by nearly USD 100 million.

The downside of these currencies is the strength of the dollar in the world against other currencies, which Reschini says is at its highest level since 2002. After the collapse of the New York Stock Exchanges, government bond prices fell, which lowered its price. , rose to 3.71% and became a vacuum cleaner of the world’s dollars.

Alternative dollars managed through AL30D (-1.6%) and GD30D (-2.1%) bonds saw strong gains as demand for agriculture continues. With revenue declining 15% to USD 207 million, MEP increased $4.28 (+1.4%) to $302.19 and cash with liquidation, $6.26 (+2%) to $312, 16.

Agriculture remained the key question as what was rumored became reality: The dollar contract pesification ends today and dollar purchases and settlements at $200 are settling until Monday. In other words, next week the wholesale dollar, which rose 28 cents yesterday to $145.18, will be the soybean dollar from October. As operations will close early from Tuesday, prices will be fixed at the official wholesale exchange rate. While all indications are that the soy dollar burial is about to begin, it should be remembered that Argentina is an unpredictable country.

In fact, yesterday, with the purchase of USD 340 million from the agricultural sector, the BCRA implemented the second largest monetary expansion since the introduction of the soy dollar.

Reserves for the payment of the debt to the IMF and for the new and sharp decline of the yuan, lost USD 1,200 million and remained at 36,319 million. The IMF will repay $1800 million when the revision of the accounts is officially approved.

But what is worrying is the trend: lost $1,938 million in two days, despite the fact that the Central bought $583 million from soybean farmers during that period. Without these purchases, reserves would have fallen by just over $2.5 billion.

The “blue” was ignored because the big hands went to the alternative dollars that are blank. That is why it is down $2 to $285 and the gap with the MEP is $17, one of the highest. The “blue” never separates more than $15. When it reaches that limit, it adjusts so as not to get out of balance. Therefore, today you can lower the “blue” or the MEP to match that price ratio.

The stock market, like Brazil’s, was up 2%, versus the world. The S&P Merval index of leading stocks rose 1.70% in pesos but fell 0.3% in dollars. The amount of business was frugal: $1,663 million and the main increases were those of comb (+4.33%) Telecom (+4.29%) yes CableVision (+3.91%)

The ADRs – depositary receipts for shares listed on the New York Stock Exchanges – suffered from the global decline. Businesses were high, exceeding $5,300 million. The biggest victims were for They are beaming (-8.5%), followed by To take off (-7.3%) yes Free market (-4.2%).

Futures saw this hedging by investors. The year-end rose 0.73% to $193.20. If this value is compared to yesterday’s closing price, the estimated devaluation is 33%. Cover with titles dollar pegged was also important. Bonds that adjust to the price of the official exchange rate, had overall increases. The T2V2 rose by 0.76% and the TV23 by 0.45. Double bonds that hedge against inflation and devaluation were up 0.25%.

Today’s market is a coin tossed in the air and no one knows which way it will fall.

KEEP READING:

Dollar live today: the free price fell to $285 and the “counted with liquid” reached $312
The Central Bank bought another $340 million in the market for its reserves
Markets: Wall Street declines dragged Argentine assets down and country risk exceeded 2,400 points
Hernán Lacunza: ‘The grenade explodes in the hand of the government after two years of making clubs’
Maturities at the IMF could put pressure on reserves until next payout from Washington

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