Dollar Today: Argentine Stocks on Wall Street Drop to 10% and the Blue Rises

Fears of a global recession continue to affect Argentine assets. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 75 basis points in a bid to contain US inflation, and risk aversion has reigned ever since. Investors are fleeing emerging countries, the dollar is strengthening and prices are falling. goods, situation that is no stranger to Argentina.

In this context, Argentine stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange are painted red today. YPF paper sinks 9.6%, followed by Tenaris (-9%), BBVA (-8%), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-6.8%), Irsa (-6.4%), Banco Supervielle ( -6.3%) and Cresud (-6%).

“Today there is a brute to sell [venta] and closing risks worldwide. Today’s sentence is ‘money is king’ [el efectivo es el rey]. The global dollar index is flying, the stock markets are collapsing, even in Argentina. This event is purely global, no one is saved, even the goods, which can be shelter in some cases. It is clear that the Fed has no problem breaking with what needs to be broken in the coming years to achieve consistent inflation,” said Fernando Camusso, director of Rafaela Capital.

The impact is also reflected in the S&P Merval. At the end of the week, it is trading at 143,720 units (473 dollar points), down 3.9% from yesterday. In the panel of the Buenos Aires stock market fall the declines of YPF (-9%), BBVA (-7.2%), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-5.6%) and Cresud (-4.5%) on.

Country risk is up 97 units and stands at 2,531 basis points (4%), the highest value since the end of July. This rise in the index produced by JP Morgan is explained by the fall in the bonds of the last debt swap: abroad they fell to 3.7% (Global 2035); at the local level 6.4% (Global 2046).

“Since Jerome Powell spoke in Jackson Hole, vision of the market has changed 180°. The rally that we had seen in equity not so long ago he was mainly driven by the idea of ​​a “’fed pivot’ (An expectation of a sharp slowdown in inflation that would allow the FED to mitigate a change in terms of monetary aggressiveness, particularly in terms of rate hikes). The opposite happened. Although inflation fell year on year, the records were worse than expected and the core (the main thermometer that central banks look at) actually accelerated. Inflation is higher and more persistent than previously believed,” noted Juan Pablo Albornoz of Invecq.

At the same time, the US labor market remained firm, the analyst said, as it was thought to weaken as a result of aggressive monetary policy. Because of these two key variables, the Fed decided it had more room to focus on containing the inflation problem at the expense of degrading growth and jobs. “This resulted in a very strong reprice of the market: there was a lot of pressure across the curve of treasure chests Yes some indicators show it is already as invested as it was before the dotcom bubble. In a scenario of significant pressure on the equity and currencies, risky assets such as emerging and Argentine assets in particular are affected,” he added.

The blue dollar sells for $286, one peso more than Thursday

In the caves and small trees of the city Buenos Aires, the dollar blue It is trading at $287, $2 more than the previous round (+0.7%). If we analyze the price it has been tracking all week, the parallel exchange rate is up $10 compared to last Friday.

Added to the global context is an exchange system that has built up reserves through the ‘soy dollar’, but does not define the existence of an exchange strategy. The program will be discontinued on September 30, but which scheme are we going to? We see this uncertainty in prices, the possibilities of a stabilization program being liquidated as more than $500,000 million has been spent in 13 rounds. It’s a problem,” Camusso said.

From Delphos Investment, they emphasized that the upward trend of the free dollars of the last rounds is also based on the demand for coverage of the soybean complex, inflation at around 7% per month, greater restrictions on access to the official dollar and high volatility in world markets this week.

However, financial exchange rates reversed the upward trend they recorded in the early hours of the day. Today the MEP dollar appears on screens for $ 301.14, nearly $2 lower than in the previous round (-0.6%). The cash with liquidation (CCL) is offered for $306.76, a daily decline of more than $5 (-1.7%).

On the other side of the foreign exchange market, the official wholesale exchange rate is trading at $145.47. They are 41 cents more than yesterday (0.2%), in the Central Bank’s efforts to keep up with inflation. Unlike the blue dollar, the hole stands at 96%.

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